Asset Pricing and Sports Betting
University of Chicago
University of Chicago
Sport wagering or sports betting is more and more common now that state legalized and internet sportsbooks are making it possible for anyone with a smartphone or computer. Sports betting markets are the most profitable prediction markets in the world and sports analytics-based predictive models can useful in creating an excellent alternative asset.
I've build a whole system for you to spend money more wisely to make the extra income you could use each week or month. I aim to make sports events investing easy for beginners by focusing on world-class results and low-cost portfolio management. My daily best picks list is posted every day before 4 PM ET (weekdays) or 10 AM ET (weekends or scheduled day games).
There are basically two ways to win consistently at sports betting. 1) Either to have inside info about a game or 2) be able to process more info than most about a game. I have chosen the latter. Like a Wall St. firm employing quants and algorithms to improve their trading ability, the secret to my success is my proprietary math models' abilities to collect, leverage, and process thousands of data points daily to indicate the highest probable winners versus point spreads for the NFL, NBA, and NCAA, plus moneyline winners for MLB, and the NHL
My predictive models assign tailor-made, different weightings and select teams (like stocks) which fit my strategies' team-selection rules, according to my desired investment factors (low volatility, for example). Though these are passive investment strategies, they carry an active slant by updating, ranking, and grading all teams' game match-ups EVERY DAY.
How Do Bettors Make Money Gambling?
Let p = probability that a gambler wins a point spread bet. If 10p-11(1-p) = 0, our expected profit on a bet equals 0. We find that p = 11/21 = .524 makes our expected profit per bet equal to 0. Therefore, if we can beat the spread or totals more than 52.4% of the time we can make money. Suppose we are really good at picking games and can win 57% of our bets. What would be our expected profit per dollar invested? Our expected return per dollar invested is (.57(10)+.43(-11))/11 = 8.8%. Thus if we can pick winners 57% of the time we can make a pretty good living betting. However, doing this against the spread in the long run is virtually impossible.
Or is it virtually impossible....
I defy expectations and the status quo by
making actionable sports info daily.
"Award-winning, industry-leading, and elite level algorithms."
(2 Million page views)
($5,000 starting bankroll)
NFL, NBA, MLB, CFB, CBK, NHL, WNBA
4,006 Capper Awards
Most people think that sports betting is about finding ‘sure things,’ but in reality such ‘locks’ are nothing more than gamblers’ fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, ‘sure things’ simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return. Winning 55% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly. Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment – but your return winning a modest 54% of your sports bets would trounce that return.
Million Dollar Skill: Why 55% Works
You only have to hit 52.4% of your wagers to break even at -110 juice. A 50 percent sports bettor is going to lose you a lot of money, while a 55% sports bettor is going to win you a lot of money. That doesn’t seem like a very big difference, but in sports betting the difference between 50% and 55% is absolutely enormous. Some amateur bettors scoff at the idea of pulling down 5% of their bets, which is what your profit would be on a 55% winning percentage. Averaging just 5% each week you bet is going to make you a nice chunk of change over the course of time, an especially over a year. Stick to a dollar amount per unit and don’t waver from it. You want to reinvest the cash you make raising your unit bet according to your growing bankroll. If you’re betting 2% on each play at $5,000, that would be $100. If your bankroll grows to $10,000, then your 2% would be $200. You could conceivably turn that $5,000 into over a million in less than 8 years if you find a sports bettor hitting 55% and are adjusting your bets according to your bankroll size. By treating sports betting as a business instead of a hobby, you can seriously turn a profit like a well-run business. It’s great if you can figure out a way to hit 55% for yourself, but if you can’t, I will help you do just that every day.